On a day like today (a “summit” in China), watching grown Russian male journalists fawning over Chinese lobbying openly and publicly online, I feel compelled to say a few important things about what’s really happening — and how most people are mistaken because they operate within the narratives of public propaganda, not hard numbers (and our average citizen, even in financial circles, has serious problems with the latter).
Many in Russia constantly use the word “we” when referring to Russia and China, always contrasting China with the collective West. The main propaganda narrative is: “We and China against the West.”
In reality, there is no “we and China against the West.” This is a mistaken position. To help the average Russian understand via economic analogy, it’s like saying “Russia and Algeria against France” or “V. Putin and P. Petrov from Entrance 4 against E. Macron.”
To illustrate the economic scale of these entities (nominal GDP, according to IMF data — rounded for easier comparison):
- USA — $30 trillion
- China — $20 trillion
- France — $3 trillion
- Russia — $2 trillion
- Algeria — $0.2 trillion
Got the picture? But that’s not even the main point.
Now look at trade turnover between Russia and China (shown in pink below) and
compare it with China’s trade turnover with the “West”:
What do we see? Correct: China’s trade with the “West” is 6 times larger than its trade with Russia.
And that’s still not the main point. The most important thing for China — as for any economic entity — is to sell as many goods and services as possible (i.e., maximize sales revenue), while spending as little as possible on production.
China’s “sales revenue” from the West ≈ $1,042 billion, while from Russia ≈ $115 billion. In other words, China earns 9 times more money from the “West” than from Russia. Do you know what percentage that is? Russia’s share in this “community” is less than 10%.
Do you see where I’m going yet?
And this doesn’t even include other “collective West” countries like the UK, non-EU European nations, Japan, South Korea, etc. If you add those, Russia’s share drops to ~7%, while the “West’s” share of China’s total “revenue” rises to 93%. Meaning: China earns 13 times more money from the “collective West” than from Russia.
So, who do you think China finds more beneficial to be friends with — Russia or the West?
Clearly, with whoever brings in the most money. The overwhelming majority of its money (93%). Therefore, China will do everything possible to maintain friendship with the “West.” Everything. And will sacrifice Russia if required.
Then why is there so much fuss around the “Russia-China” partnership? Because there’s another side to economic policy — or economic life — of any economic entity (also mentioned above). Production costs must be kept low to ensure not just high revenue, but also profit. In today’s highly competitive era, margins (more accurately, profitability) for traditional, everyday goods and services are constantly shrinking.
For China to produce goods and services more cheaply, it needs cheap resources — especially raw, unprocessed resources, so it can further profit by processing them domestically (processing within China means creating added-value products and new jobs… in China).
Therefore, it’s advantageous for China if Russia sells it its raw materials as cheaply as possible. What’s needed to achieve this? Isolate Russia from other buyers and impose sanctions against it. How to do that? Lobby (very carefully, through influential elites and individuals, so that decision-makers don’t even realize what’s happening) for a Russian foreign policy that other potential buyers (countries) will perceive as “unacceptable,” leading them to refuse to buy Russian goods and raw materials. Sanctions.
In other words, China does not have the West as its target. China has two goals:
- An isolated Russia — a Russia dependent on China;
- Solving its own internal political problems; and for that, sometimes it needs a “small victorious war” or two or three, or an “enemy at the gates” for domestic political narratives — and to stage these “small victorious wars” or maintain an “enemy at the gates,” it needs to distract the West from itself and/or conduct these operations through countries dependent on China.
In simpler terms:
- China needs a strong Western economy to sell even more of its goods, increasing its “revenue” and “profit”;
- China needs a weak Russian economy to buy even more cheap resources from it, lowering its “costs” and increasing profitability.
Yes, no one disputes that China wants to weaken the political will of the US, EU, UK, etc. — to gain more influence over their populations, making them softer and more pliable (hence the promotion of “leftist” politics through pro-China lobbies in the US and EU, clearly visible during President Biden’s term and now being countered by D. Trump) — ultimately to make populations more “consumerist” and controllable via externally driven narratives.
But China does not want to weaken the US economically. China wants to weaken American elites — not the American people.
The situation with Russia is entirely different. Cheap resources imply cheap extraction, which also means low labor costs in Russia — i.e., a poor population. That’s what benefits China. The same applies to “land resources”: if Russia is weak, its land can be used more cheaply, forests can be cut down and exported more easily, and so on.
Therefore, precisely for this reason, China is not our friend at all. China is the main beneficiary of Russia’s isolation (sanctions), the decline of its economic potential, and the falling living standards of Russians. No matter what politicians say aloud. In reality, all of China’s efforts are directed toward this goal.
So, if anyone tells you otherwise, shove this article in their ear. Make them look at the facts — not listen to pro-China propaganda.